SciCasters are following the ESA’s International Rosetta Mission and counting down the days of the much-anticipated landing of the Philae on a periodic comet known as Comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko. The latest news from ESA states that it will deploy the Philae to the comet on November 12.http://bit.ly/1DQEAcy
The HPV questions have resolved. There were 52 questions (one for each state) plus six cluster questions and one question about the nation (see trends graph below).
The state questions asked, “What will be the 2013 estimated vaccination coverage of HPV for females aged 13-17 in the state of <State name>.”
State HPV vaccination likely is dependent on the cluster to which the state belongs. We asked forecasters to help to fill in the conditional probability forecasts by using the “Related Forecasts” section after a forecast on the cluster question. Continue reading →
Unfortunately weeks passed and on May 29th Bluefin-21’s mission was completed, unsuccessfully. Bluefin-21 then stopped looking. At this point, I (and others) expected the forecast to plummet. But folks kept pushing it back up. In fact I count about 5 or 6 distinct individuals who moved the probability up after completion of the mission. There are perfectly good reasons related to the nature of the prediction market for some of those adjustments.
The question, What West African country will be third to detect the Ebola Virus in 2014 after Guinea and Liberia? has resolved as Sierra Leone, with a Brier score of 0.87, slightly better than baseline 0.93. For more information, view this post on the CDC web site. Continue reading →
The question, What percent of managed honey bee colonies in the US will be lost during the 2013-2014 winter? has resolved as “Between 21% and 25%,” with a Brier score of 0.31, notably worse than the baseline of 0.21. There were 252 forecasts by 73 users.