Jacek Stopa, Chess International Master, Contributes Questions to SciCast

February 27, 2014Color_Logo
For Immediate Release

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FAIRFAX, VA

Chess-related questions are the latest addition to next-gen forecasting project

SciCast is pleased to welcome chess International Master Jacek Stopa to its growing community of science and technology thought leaders. Stopa has authored nine chess-related questions for SciCast, a crowdsourced forecasting platform for science and technology run by George Mason University.

Born in 1987 in Wroclaw, Poland, Stopa started playing chess at age eight. He has been an International Master since 2006 and a medalist at World and European Youth Championships. “I have been fascinated by the idea of forecasting for many years and being a contributor to SciCast gives me an excellent opportunity to interact with people who share this interest,” Stopa said. “I’m glad I can now combine it with chess, too.”

SciCast is based on the idea that the collective wisdom of an informed and diverse group is often a better predictor than the judgment of a single expert. Part of the Forecasting Science and Technology (ForeST) Program funded by the Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA), SciCast questions are generated by its participants, like Stopa, as well as by other ForeST teams at Inkling Markets, BAE Systems and SRI International.

According to Dr. Jason Matheny, ForeST program manager at IARPA, “George Mason University has succeeded in launching the world’s largest forecasting tournament for science and technology. SciCast can help the public and private sectors to better understand a range of scientific and technological trends.”

Interested individuals or parties at least 18 years of age may register to participate in SciCast at http://www.SciCast.org, or can contact SciCast via email at support@scicast.org.

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Related Scenarios/Linked Questions – Almond Production

The forecast question “How many billions of pounds of almond meat will be harvested in California in 2013?”  has been resolved and is closed for additional forecasts. The most popular answer was a bit too low (1.80-1.89).  The answer was 1.92 billion pounds.

The USDA’s NASS ‘Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts 2012 Annual Summary’ was not published as originally scheduled due to the U.S. federal government’s 2013 budget sequestration.  Although the USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) has issued its annual almond summary in January nearly every year, this year we should not expect the ‘Noncitrus Fruits and Nuts 2013 Annual Summary’ until July.

Therefore, we decided to use the summary statistics of the Almond Board to settle this question. The twelve months of numbers for 2013 in the last table of the Almond Board report sum to about 1.92 billion pounds.

Please note that there are still open questions regarding almonds in 2013 that will not resolve until the USDA NASS publishes its report.
Make your forecasts on the remaining linked almond production questions:
  • Question 121:  What will be the total U.S. almond utilized production during the 2013 marketing season, in thousands of tons?
  • Question 122: What will be the total value of U.S. almond utilized production for the 2013 marketing season, in thousands of USD?
  • Question 104: What percent of managed honey bee colonies in the US will be lost during the 2013-2014 winter?  This has been one of our most popular questions and is linked to many of the agriculture questions.

LinkFest

SciCast Update:

Last week we created 10 new linked clusters for “Related Scenarios.”

  1. Arctic Ice: 3 questions linked
  2. Photovoltaics: 3 questions linked
  3. Multijunction solar: 4 questions linked
  4. Fusion: 4 questions linked
  5. ADMX: 3 questions linked
  6. Superconductivity: 2 questions linked
  7. Mars: 2 questions linked
  8. Internet traffic: 2 questions linked
  9. ISS: 3 questions linked
  10. Bitcoin: 5 questions linked

Here is how it works:

Select your question (as usual):

Arctic_Ice

If you like, view the discussion, background, and/or trends & history by clicking on the applicable tab(s), as usual:

Arctic_Ice_Background

Make your forecast and see how you affected the chances — if you want to select a related scenario only, just forecast the current value. You will now be able to select (assume) an outcome.

Related_Forecasts_1

After selecting an outcome, you will see a related forecast question.Related_Forecasts_2

Select your answer to the related question, in this assumed scenario:

Related_Forecasts_3

Repeat as you like with different scenarios (assumptions).

We hope to add links roughly weekly. Feel free to make suggestions via the Comments feature.

Tell us what you think.

We’d like to know what you think of SciCast questions. Please vote in the poll below. We value your feedback.