Bibliography

  • SciCast is active at http://www.scicast.org
  • Frequently-cited papers on prediction markets: [1]–[4]
  • Logarithmic market scoring rule, combinatorial markets, and the SciCast engine: [5]–[11]
  • SciCast (formerly DAGGRE) blog posts explaining conditional edits: [12]–[14]
  • Other work on combinatorial markets: [15]–[17]

[1] J. Wolfers and E. Zitzewitz, “Prediction Markets,” SSRN ELibrary, Apr. 2004.

[2] E. Servan-Schreiber, J. Wolfers, D. M. Pennock, and B. Galebach, “Prediction Markets: Does Money Matter?,” Electron. Mark., vol. 14, no. 3, pp. 243–251, 2004.

[3] J. Wolfers, E. Zitzewitz, and N. B. of E. Research, Prediction Markets in Theory and Practice. National Bureau of Economic Research, 2006.

[4] “Prediction Markets at Google: A Guest Post – Freakonomics Blog – NYTimes.com.” [Online]. Available: http://freakonomics.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/01/14/prediction-markets-at-google-a-guest-post/.

[5] R. Hanson, “Logarithmic Market Scoring Rules for Modular Combinatorial Information Aggregation,” J. Predict. Mark., Vol. 1, No. 1, pp. 3-15. 2007.

[6] R. Hanson, “Combinatorial information market design,” Inf. Syst. Front., vol. 5, no. 1, pp. 107–119, 2003.

[7] J. Ledyard, R. Hanson, and T. Ishikida, “An experimental test of combinatorial information markets,” J. Econ. Behav. Organ., vol. 69, no. 2, pp. 182–189, 2009.

[8] W. Sun, R. Hanson, K. B. Laskey, and C. Twardy, “Probability and Asset Updating using Bayesian Networks for Combinatorial Prediction Markets,” in Proceedings of the 28th Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence (UAI-2012), Catalina, CA, 2012. http://pluto.coe.fsu.edu/UAI2013Workshops/BigData/papers/paper_9.pdf

[9] Powell, W., Hanson, R., Laskey, K., & Twardy, C. (in-press). Combinatorial prediction markets: An experimental study. Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence: Scalable uncertainty management. (SUM’13, to be included in the LNAI proceedings.)

[10] Sun, W., Hanson, R., Laskey, K.,“Learning Parameters by Prediction Markets and Kelly Rule for Graphical Models,” Big Data Meet Complex Models: AUAI Application Workshop, held at the Twenty-Ninth Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, Bellevue, WA. pp. 39-48, July 2013.

[11] D’Ambrosio, B. Incremental Probabilistic Inference. Proc. Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, 1993, pp. 301-308.

[12] Twardy, Charles, “Why conditional edits?,” http://blog.daggre.org, 05-Nov-2012.

[13] Twardy, Charles, “Combo Market Preview,” http://blog.daggre.org, 20-Aug-2012.

[14] Twardy, Charles, “Leaderboard, Graph, and Ripple Effects,” http://blog.daggre.org, 09-Dec-2012.

[15] Y. Chen, L. Fortnow, N. Lambert, D. M. Pennock, and J. Wortman, “Complexity of combinatorial market makers,” in Proceedings of the 9th ACM conference on Electronic Commerce, 2008, pp. 190–199.

[16] Y. Chen, S. Goel, and D. M. Pennock, “Pricing combinatorial markets for tournaments,” in Proceedings of the 40th annual ACM symposium on Theory of Computing, New York, NY, USA, 2008, pp. 305–314.

[17] L. Xia and D. Pennock, “Price updating in combinatorial prediction markets with Bayesian networks,” in Proceedings of the 27th Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, Barcelona, Spain, 2011, pp. 581–588.

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