New Approach to Combo Forecasts…

Tonight’s release streamlines combo trades, adds some per-question rank feedback, prettifies resolutions, and disables recurring edits.

Screen Shot 2014-09-23 at 9.28.27 PM

We’ve redone the approach to trading linked questions. Now if the question is linked to other questions, you can make any desired assumptions right from the main trade screen.

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Market Accuracy and Calibration

Prediction market performance can be assessed using a variety of methods. Recently, SciCast researchers have been taking a closer look at the market accuracy, which is measured in a variety of ways. A commonly used scoring rule is the Brier score that functions much like squared error between the forecasts and the outcomes on questions.

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SciCast partner TechCast has relaunched as TechCast Global

With a New Name, New Website, and Expanded Services, TechCast Now Offers a Full Range of Forecasts and Strategy for a Changing World

TechCast, a virtual think tank tracking the technology revolution for 20 years, is excited to announce the launch of its new website at http://www.techcastglobal.com. The redesigned site with mobile interface provides expanded access to TechCast’s award-winning forecasts of emerging technologies, social trends, and wild cards. It also features new tools for strategic planning. The company changed its name to TechCast Global, Inc. raising foresight to a broader scope covering the entire technology revolution, globalization, and other strategic forces that are transforming business, government, and the world itself.

“The launching of TechCast Global comes at a propitious time when all organizations need to plan for disruptive change,” said Prof. William E. Halal, Founder and President of TechCast Global. Accelerating technological change, evolving global markets, global warming, transparency, and other new powerful forces are altering products, services, lifestyles, industries, and the way organizations work.

Read the full release here.

Great Lakes questions have resolved

The Great Lakes questions have resolved.

Lake Ontario

What will be the peak mean ice concentration in Lake Ontario during the 2013/2014 winter? has resolved as “56% or greater”. Data from NOAA coastal watch indicates Lake Ontario ice concentration hit 61.52%.

Analysis of the Predictions

Lake Ontario

Our raw market Brier Score (before smoothing or adjustments) was .75.

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