US Flu Forecast: Exploring links between national and regional level seasonal characteristics

For the flu forecasting challenge (https://scicast.org/flu) participants are required to predict several flu season characteristics, at national and at regional levels (10 HHS regions). For some of the required quantities  such as peak percentage influenza-like illness (ILI), and total seasonal ILI count  one may argue that national level values have some relationship with the regional level ones. Or, in other words participants may be led to believe that national level statistics can be obtained from regional level ones.

Continue reading

Advertisements

Boo! Shadow forecasts on SciCast

In time for Hallowe’en, we’ve added Shadow Forecasts and other features to help show the awesome power of combo.

  1. Shadowy: when linked forecasts affect a question, we show “Shadow Forecasts” in the history and the trend graph.legend
  2. Pointy: the trend graph now shows one point per forecast instead of just the nightly snapshot.
  3. Chatty: Comment while you forecast.  (But not while you drive.)

Read on for news about upcoming prizes.

Continue reading

Q&A with SciCaster Julie J.C.H. Ryan

SciCasters represent a variety of communities – academics, professionals, enthusiasts, even students. Find out how one professor built SciCast into her curriculum – and led students by example.

Julie JCH Ryan

Meet SciCaster Julie J.C.H. Ryan, Associate Professor, Engineering Management and Systems Engineering, George Washington University.

Q: Why SciCast in the classroom?

I was intrigued by the potential and explored several alternatives with the George Mason folks.  I decided to use SciCast as a practical learning exercise for a tech forecasting course that I was teaching in the spring.  I provide opportunities for students to learn through guided experiences.  I integrate a lot of exercises in my classes so that students are engaged in active learning through incremental explorations of the material.

Continue reading

Will Philae land successfully on the surface of a comet?

DataSheet_EM_100814-2_01

Background

SciCasters are following the ESA’s International Rosetta Mission and counting down the days of the much-anticipated landing of the Philae on a periodic comet known as Comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko. The latest news from ESA states that it will deploy the Philae to the comet on November 12. http://bit.ly/1DQEAcy

Continue reading