General Resolution Guidance

SciCast administrators work hard to ensure that all questions are clear and resolvable, and we require all authors to list resolution sources where available. However, the future is uncertain, and even paragraph-long legal specifications can be overcome by events.  Forecasters are advised that except when the source itself is the subject – such as whether Nature will issue a retraction – the event being forecast trumps the source.  Therefore when the named source is unavailable, the judge will look for alternate sources where applicable. In cases where equivalent sources disagree the judge will seek direct confirmation or solicit independent expertise.

Forecasters are advised to get clarification before investing – a comment flagged for Administrator will notify the question’s author or judge.   As SciCast opens up the publishing process, an increasing number of questions will not be vetted by SciCast editors – if forecasters think the question unresolvable, they should avoid it or play a strategy they think a good risk given that the question could be modified, invalidated, or resolved by a judge whose criteria they do not know.

The resolution process notifies users of the intended resolution 48 hours before it is made final, to allow for discussion.  Disputes should happen within this period.  Appeals can be made to, but it is difficult (and often impossible) to modify final resolutions, and labor-intensive to adjudicate reimbursements.


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