SciCast WSJ Coverage: U.S. Intelligence Community Explores More Rigorous Ways to Forecast Events

SciCast has been featured in a Wall Street Journal article about crowdsourced forecasting in the U.S. intelligence community. We’re excited to share that SciCast now has nearly 10,000 participants, a 50% increase in the last two months – an important achievement for a crowdsourced prediction site.

WSJ_September2014

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Market Accuracy and Calibration

Prediction market performance can be assessed using a variety of methods. Recently, SciCast researchers have been taking a closer look at the market accuracy, which is measured in a variety of ways. A commonly used scoring rule is the Brier score that functions much like squared error between the forecasts and the outcomes on questions.

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Join SciCast for a Reddit Science AMA and an ACS webinar this week!

Have you ever wondered what will be the next ‘big thing’ in technology?  What if you could garner collective wisdom from your peers – those who are interested in the same topics as you – with global reach?

Don’t miss two unique opportunities to learn more about how you can do this on SciCast (www.scicast.org), the largest known science and technology-focused crowdsourced forecasting site.

SciCast will be the featured topic in a Reddit Science AMA and an American Chemistry Society webinar this week!  Don’t miss these opportunities to share your SciCast expertise and weigh in on the discussion. We also encourage you to share the information with your friends and colleagues.

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HPV questions have resolved on SciCast

The HPV questions have resolved. There were 52 questions (one for each state) plus six cluster questions and one question about the nation (see trends graph below).

The state questions asked, “What will be the 2013 estimated vaccination coverage of HPV for females aged 13-17 in the state of <State name>.”

State HPV vaccination likely is dependent on the cluster to which the state belongs. We asked forecasters to help to fill in the conditional probability forecasts by using the “Related Forecasts” section after a forecast on the cluster question. Continue reading