Seven Guidelines for Better Forecasting

Nice summary by longtime colleague and arch argument mapper Tim van Gelder. “The pivotal element here obviously is Track, i.e. measure predictive accuracy using a proper scoring rule.” If “ACERA” sounds familiar, it’s because they were part of our team when we were DAGGRE: they ran several experiments on and in parallel to the site.

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About ctwardy

2016 - : Senior Data Scientist: Jacobs (previously Sotera, then KeyW) 2015 - : Affiliate Professor, George Mason U. 2015-2016: Senior Data Scientist, Defense Suicide Prevention Office (via NTVI Federal) 2008-2015: Research Assistant Professor at George Mason University. Areas: Judgment & Decision-making; Machine learning; Statistical inference; Philosophy of Science; Collective Intellligence; Computational Philosophy.

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