Accuracy Contest: First round questions

The first round of questions has been selected for the new accuracy contest. Forecasts on these questions from November 7, 2014, through December 6, 2014, have their market scores calculated and added to a person’s “portfolio.” The best portfolios at a time shortly after March 7, 2015, will win big prizes.

Here is the list of questions’ identification numbers:

44, 45, 48, 76 103, 123, 128, 129, 138, 140, 144, 154, 158, 173, 175, 179, 184, 191, 193, 195, 197, 201, 204, 208, 216, 224, 229, 230, 253, 309, 314, 316, 321, 326, 328, 333, 338, 345, 347, 355, 357, 358, 369, 374, 376, 377, 378, 384, 386, 403, 409, 416, 418, 419, 420, 425, 428, 438, 447, 448, 451, 452, 454, 467, 468, 529, 553, 561, 565, 581, 583, 588, 607, 609, 620, 622, 625, 633, 635, 644, 647, 654, 663, 665, 670, 679, 684, 693, 702, 704, 706, 710, 715, 719, 720, 724, 726, 741, 745, 774, 786, 791, 793, 801, 816, 818, 819, 822, 839, 842, 847, 851, 853, 856, 858, 863, 875, 876, 895, 897, 900, 905, 910, 918, 920, 922, 923, 925, 926, 927, 929, 931, 933, 936, 940, 941, 942, 943, 944, 957, 958, 959, 961, 962, 963, 964, 966, 977, 978, 979, 981, 987, 988, 989, 991, 1004, 1007, 1010, 1011, 1014, 1016, 1026, 1030, 1034, 1039, 1040, 1041, 1042, 1044

You can reach a particular question by typing “https://scicast.org/#!/questions/<NUMBER>/trades” into your browser while replacing <NUMBER> with the identification number for the question that you care about.

To see all the questions in one place on SciCast.org, filter the questions. You can most easily find the prize questions for the first round by logging in and clicking on “QUESTIONS.” On the left side under “TOPICS” check “Prize-Eligible Nov & Jan.

We selected questions for the competition that are most likely resolve before the contest ends. There will only be two sets of questions, and we’ve tried to make them very similar. Question sets will alternate for prize eligibility each month over four months, so we’ll reveal the next set of questions a few days before December 7. Those questions will be eligible again on February 7, and the questions in this first month will be eligible again on January 7.

We reserve the right to spontaneously add short-term questions to the sets as the contest continues so that the volume of eligible questions is more contant.  We also might randomly change the exact time that eligibility of forecasts begins and ends so that someone can’t profit by making a trade at 23:59:59 at the end of one month and reversing it seconds later at 00:00:01 the next month.  Although this could disqualify someone under the contest rules verbiage about “purposefully losing behavior” and attempts to create artificial trends, we would rather not provide the temptation.

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