New Approach to Combo Forecasts…

Tonight’s release streamlines combo trades, adds some per-question rank feedback, prettifies resolutions, and disables recurring edits.

Screen Shot 2014-09-23 at 9.28.27 PM

We’ve redone the approach to trading linked questions. Now if the question is linked to other questions, you can make any desired assumptions right from the main trade screen.

Select your question and option:

Screen Shot 2014-09-23 at 9.25.02 PM

All the following information changes to reflect the assumption:

Screen Shot 2014-09-23 at 9.25.44 PM
Go ahead and trade as usual.

The next release should have improvements in the history to clarify the effect of combo vs. marginal trades.

Improved Feedback

There are also a couple of small improvements to feedback tweaking and expanding those in the 9/9 release. On questions you have forecast, you will get a daily progress update in the “Make a Forecast” tab:

Screen Shot 2014-09-23 at 9.26.41 PM

The #trades is live, but the performance is drawn from the daily expected-value calculation on your portfolio, and is only current as of around midnight. (I know it says twice-daily here – that’s because it’s a screenshot from testing.)

Remember that you can also see all your question-by-question expected value and rank information under “My Dashboard” → “My Activity”:

Screen Shot 2014-09-23 at 9.26.49 PM

It shows your last forecast like before, but “Your Performance” now has better information including hovertext with absolute rank:

Screen Shot 2014-09-23 at 9.27.42 PM

So, this row says:

  • Your last forecast lowered the conditional probability “Paypal integrates Bitcoin assuming Google integrates Bitcoin” to 95%.
  • As of the last daily update, based on all your forecasts up until then, and the probabilities holding at the moment of the calculation, you were expected to gain 5 points on this question. Only 5 people (out of 31) were expected to gain more, putting you in the Top 19%.
  • (Happily this is consistent with the information you saw on the question’s “Make a Forecast” tab: “you are performing better than 81% of other people who have made forecasts” on this Paypal question.

Coming soon on this page: min/max for the whole question.


Oh, resolutions are prettier too:


They even tell you the…

Recurring Trades Discontinued

This release also dropped recurring trades due to the demonstrated ability to game them.  We are considering whether to re-introduce limit trades later, or whether to devolve this capability to forecasters writing scripts against the API.

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