Win Prizes for Making Forecasts on SciCast

SciCast is running a special!

For four weeks, you can win prizes on some days of the week:

  • On Wednesdays, win a badge for your profile.
  • On Fridays, win a $25 Amazon Gift Card.
  • On Tuesdays, win both a badge and a $25 Amazon Gift Card.

swag_he swag_ne swag_rn

On each prize day up to 60 valid forecasts and comments made that day will be randomly selected to win (total limit of $575 per person).

Be sure to use SciCast from May 26 to June 20!

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27 thoughts on “Win Prizes for Making Forecasts on SciCast

  1. This seems to incentivize certain forecasting styles over others. To wit, making many small edits is more likely to win a prize than making fewer, larger edits, correct? Also, a bad actor might make arbitrarily many +1%, -1% edits in succession to increase her probability of a prize without losing any points…

    • @sflicht: You are correct this is not an ideal incentive, but we will be studying it closely to model and make a case for future ones. Yes, it favors several small edits over one large edit. By itself that’s fine. It is sometimes better strategy to move it a little and see if someone responds, rather than move it all the way at once. It is of course easily gamed. We are betting that (a) most of our forecasters will be more cooperative, and (b) egregious misbehavior is relatively easily detected.

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  3. My suggestion: make the play money worth something. Rewards should go to the person with the highest score at the end of the reward period. Yes, HAL has an advantage but he earned it. (With a lower capital allocation than is currently available, too!) Or reward the top N people using a specified scoring function. But rewards for activity do not suitably couple the reward to the forecasting performance.

    • Winners are receiving email messages indicating they have won. We’re also publishing user names of winners here on the blog.

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